May 16, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon May 16 05:23:36 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 160521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE RAP 40 SSE MBG 25 NW HON 35 ENE YKN 35 ENE OLU 25 SW BIE 30 WNW HUT 30 NNW GAG 25 SSW LBL 50 NW GCK 25 SE SNY 25 NW AIA 25 S RAP 55 NNE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE MSP 10 SE OTM 45 NE SZL 45 SSW END ABI 15 NNE SJT 35 SSE MAF 45 NE HOB 30 W AMA 40 S LAA 15 NNE LHX PUB 30 NE ALS 50 E DRO 45 SSE 4BL 35 NW U17 50 SE EVW 35 SE RKS 35 N RKS 30 W COD 50 N BIL 55 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW HUM 35 S BTR 55 SE MEI 15 W ANB 40 NW AND 40 E HSS 25 SE RDU 45 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT WITH TIME THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG LOW / TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD-MOVING UPPER FEATURE. ...CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS... STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG / ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO SURFACE HIGH / RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SRN PLAINS OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT...WEAKER INSTABILITY / SHEAR FURTHER N...AND PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD / PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS WRN KS / NEB INTO THE SRN HALF OF SD. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE VERY STRONG FROM THE S...A COMPARATIVELY MODEST / COMPACT SSWLY 45 KT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. AS A RESULT...SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELD WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF SMALL-SCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION COULD EVOLVE. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT -- AIDED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...SERN U.S. / FL PENINSULA... MODELS SUGGEST ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS / GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF RESULTING CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE AIRMASS...AND UPON AMOUNT OF SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...AND PERHAPS A LOW-END / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER S ACROSS FL...MOIST / DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION INVOF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES -- WITH MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID / UPPER FLOW ON NRN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER / MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND LOCAL / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |