SPC AC 290637
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
   INK 30 SW ROW 50 SSE SAF 45 WNW RTN 30 WNW PUB 40 SE LIC 10 NE LAA
   10 N DHT 20 WNW LBB 30 NE BGS 45 W BWD 35 ENE JCT 15 ENE HDO 25 NW
   COT 35 SE DRT 25 ENE P07 30 WNW INK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW
   40 SE PGA 45 W MLF 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM
   ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 15 E WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE
   HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR
   10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE
   JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD
   TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW...NOW OVER NRN
   CA...WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NRN UT INTO CO ON
   MONDAY.  FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
   TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTH...A POSITIVE
   TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z
   MONDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE NWRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
   WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45-50 KT ACROSS ERN
   CO/ERN NM AS THE NRN UT TROUGH MOVES EWD.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
   FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD FROM OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
   TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NM. A DRY LINE WILL
   EXTEND FROM SERN NM TO NEAR DRT BY MID AFTERNOON.
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   AND INTO THE MID 60S OVER SWRN TX WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS
   THE DRY LINE.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND
   SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   THE STRONGEST OVER SRN CO/ERN NM WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   LIKELY...WITH MULTICELLS EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMMON SEWD ALONG THE
   DRY LINE.  A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN TX INTO WRN KS
   MONDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO MCS/S TO
   DEVELOP ESEWD INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN TX MONDAY
   NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN TX NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO SERN STATES...
   BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING FROM
   SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ON MONDAY
   AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH.  A WEAK SURFACE
   BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND
   THEN SEWD TO SERN GA AT 12Z MONDAY.  THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY...WITH THE GA PORTION MOVING NEWD INTO SC.  SSWLY LOW
   LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
   
   MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
   AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/TN
   VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS DIFFERENCE WHICH AFFECTS THE
   DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS RESULTED IN A LOW
   CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TX TO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD TO THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. 
   THUS...HAVE ISSUED A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ACROSS THESE AREAS. 
   PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL RISK
   IN LATER OUTLOOKS...WHEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE OBVIOUS.
   
   ...OH VALLEY STATES...
   DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH...A BAND OF MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL
   WINDS /40-50 KT/ SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN IA/IL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATED DIFFERENT
   SOLUTIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WITH THE SPEED OF A COLD FRONT
   MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT
   OF MID LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/
   COVERAGE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/29/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z