Jul 6, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Jul 6 06:11:36 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 060609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK JMS MBG 40 SE REJ 40 SW 4BQ MLS GDV SDY ISN 80 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS TCC LHX LIC AKO IML MCK HLC GAG CDS 55 E LBB 60 SSE CVS CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW PBG ISP ...CONT... 35 ESE GPT TCL HSV CSV LOZ LEX IND 45 WSW FWA 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ELO DLH STC BKX MHE BUB EAR SLN ICT OKC BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 4FC CPR WRL SUN SVE MHS 65 NNE MFR RDM 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS/SERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND HUDSON BAY REGIONS. DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER ERN CONUS. OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...ALONG WITH MANY 21Z SREF MEMBERS...AGREE ON WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB OVER ERN GREAT LAKES OR ADJACENT PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA OF SERN ONT/SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN NEWD EJECTION OF REMAINS OF TS CINDY...SEE NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR SPECIFIC FCST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER NW...MINOR/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO PASS OVER PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...AMIDST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY/WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND PORTIONS DAKOTAS...WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SERN MT/NWRN SD PORTION OF FRONT. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CLUSTERING INTO AN MCS OR TWO IN EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AS RIDGE BUILDS TO W AND NW...FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAT DAY-1...ESPECIALLY IN UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN MORE BRIEF WINDOW FOR OPTIMAL STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...FCST LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ENLARGED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS. THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATED STRONG AFTERNOON BUOYANCY -- SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT. ...DAKOTAS/SERN MT AREA... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCI SHOULD BE FRONTAL ZONE OVER DAKOTAS/SERN MT...AND POSTFRONTAL NELYS ADVECTING RESIDUAL MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS SRN MT. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT AND IS EXPECTED TO ME MARGINAL INVOF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED SFC DEW POINTS IN 60S F SHOULD YIELD MDT-STRONG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY OVER ND AND NRN SD. LINE OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PRIMARILY MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR N-NE OF LEE CYCLONE ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FROM SERN MT TOWARD WRN DAKOTAS. ...TIDEWATER/PIEDMONT AREAS...DELMARVA TO SC... REMAINS OF TS CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH -- AND PERHAPS REGIONALLY ENHANCE -- WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED SW-NE OVER SERN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND BACKED FLOW ALONG/E OF THAT FRONT MAY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SE-NE OF LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING OPTIMIZES SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS THIS FAR INLAND...AND OF MESOSCALE DETAILS REGARDING FRONTAL INTERACTION -- PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |