Jul 7, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 7 06:07:36 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050707 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20050707 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 070606
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CMX JVL RFD
   PIA UIN MKC HUT GAG 65 WSW SPS MWL LFK HEZ MGM AUO LGC ATL TYS LOZ
   LEX MIE FWA JXN FNT 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH
   ACK ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 40 W CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 65
   SSE DRT ...CONT... ELP ONM 4SL CPR WRL JAC BYI 4LW LMT 55 NNE MFR 50
   ESE SLE DLS EPH 40 NNE 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW PIE PBI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN GBN PHX SAD
   45 ESE DUG.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID/UPPER
   LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND
   POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CO ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY. TROUGHING
   ASSOCIATED WITH AK PANHANDLE/BC COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN SWLY
   MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM PACIFIC NW NEWD ACROSS CANADIAN
   ROCKIES...AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  BROAD UPPER LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SRN ONT AND
   ERN GREAT LAKES FROM SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ENHANCING
   HEIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
   
   ...MN/IA/ERN SD...
   POTENTIAL LATE DAY-1 MCS MAY STILL CONTAIN SOME STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS
   AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...INTO FAVORABLY
   MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S AND LOW 70S.  REF LATEST
   DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.  PRIND ANY
   LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MORNING AS
   DIABATIC HEATING REDUCES/ELIMINATES NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   DECOUPLING...CAUSING WEAKENING OF LLJ. BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY ANY
   MORNING COMPLEX MAY...IN TURN...PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
   SUBSEQUENT/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.  ANY SUCH CONVECTION WOULD HAVE
   SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...HEATED/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR. HOWEVER...BUILDING RIDGE TO W AND INCREASING
   CAPPING...COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO RELIANCE ON PRIOR
   CONVECTION...MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
   ATTM.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
   BETWEEN NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO SWD THROUGH W TX/ERN NM REGION. 
   SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE
   UPSLOPE...AMIDST STRONG DIURNAL HEATING.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY
   OCCUR BOTH ALONG COMMON OROGRAPHIC FOCI AND ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES
   LEFT BY DAY-1 ACTIVITY.  AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT
   PLAINS...HOWEVER...LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE
   MULTICELL/TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE MODES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MORE
   MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/ERN MT AND WRN DAKOTAS...IN
   ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW E
   OF JET MAX.  MEAN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM ARE
   REASONABLY PROGGED OVER REGION GIVEN PERSISTENT WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. 
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND
   HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.  CONCERNS OVER MOISTURE AND
   LOCATION/STRENGTH OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING PRECLUDE LARGE
   ENOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
   
   ...TIDEWATER AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN...
   REMAINS OF FORMER T.S. CINDY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN
   PERIOD.  FAVORABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E AND S OF TRACK OF ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL
   VORTICITY LOBE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 
   HOWEVER...STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT
   OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.  THREAT MAY BE OVERWITH
   ALTOGETHER BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD IF CYCLONE REMNANTS EJECT SLIGHTLY
   FASTER THAN PROGGED.
   
   ...S FL...
   DENNIS IS FCST BY NHC TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO SERN
   GULF LATE IN PERIOD AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
   -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY
   GUIDANCE AND RELATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE
   CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES MAY
   AFFECT FL KEYS AND BRUSH PORTIONS SRN PENINSULA.  IF CURRENT
   TRACK/INTENSITY PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE AS IS OR SHIFT
   EWD AT ALL...THIS AREA EVENTUALLY MAY NEED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z