Jul 7, 2005 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Jul 7 06:07:36 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 070606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CMX JVL RFD PIA UIN MKC HUT GAG 65 WSW SPS MWL LFK HEZ MGM AUO LGC ATL TYS LOZ LEX MIE FWA JXN FNT 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 40 W CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... ELP ONM 4SL CPR WRL JAC BYI 4LW LMT 55 NNE MFR 50 ESE SLE DLS EPH 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW PIE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN GBN PHX SAD 45 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CO ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY. TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AK PANHANDLE/BC COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM PACIFIC NW NEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SRN ONT AND ERN GREAT LAKES FROM SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ENHANCING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ...MN/IA/ERN SD... POTENTIAL LATE DAY-1 MCS MAY STILL CONTAIN SOME STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S AND LOW 70S. REF LATEST DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. PRIND ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MORNING AS DIABATIC HEATING REDUCES/ELIMINATES NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...CAUSING WEAKENING OF LLJ. BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY ANY MORNING COMPLEX MAY...IN TURN...PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUCH CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...HEATED/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...BUILDING RIDGE TO W AND INCREASING CAPPING...COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO RELIANCE ON PRIOR CONVECTION...MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO SWD THROUGH W TX/ERN NM REGION. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE UPSLOPE...AMIDST STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR BOTH ALONG COMMON OROGRAPHIC FOCI AND ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT BY DAY-1 ACTIVITY. AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS...HOWEVER...LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE MULTICELL/TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE MODES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MORE MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/ERN MT AND WRN DAKOTAS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF JET MAX. MEAN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM ARE REASONABLY PROGGED OVER REGION GIVEN PERSISTENT WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. CONCERNS OVER MOISTURE AND LOCATION/STRENGTH OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING PRECLUDE LARGE ENOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...TIDEWATER AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN... REMAINS OF FORMER T.S. CINDY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN PERIOD. FAVORABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E AND S OF TRACK OF ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. THREAT MAY BE OVERWITH ALTOGETHER BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD IF CYCLONE REMNANTS EJECT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PROGGED. ...S FL... DENNIS IS FCST BY NHC TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO SERN GULF LATE IN PERIOD AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND RELATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES MAY AFFECT FL KEYS AND BRUSH PORTIONS SRN PENINSULA. IF CURRENT TRACK/INTENSITY PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE AS IS OR SHIFT EWD AT ALL...THIS AREA EVENTUALLY MAY NEED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |