SPC AC 091731
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
   INL 20 SE FAR 35 ENE PIR 30 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 45 SE 4BQ 25 E DIK 55
   NNE MOT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
   PNS 30 SSW CBM 20 NNE TUP 25 SSE BNA 30 SW TYS 30 NE AGS 25 SW DAB
   20 SSW FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CMX 25 NE RWF
   35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E
   BVO 50 SSE SZL 55 SSE SDF 35 NNW HKY 25 ESE GSO 20 E ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 45 SSE ALS
   35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 25 NW HLN 35 NNE LWT 70 NW
   GGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN
   15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   U.S....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THIS
   PERIOD.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE WRN FL
   PENINSULA / SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  PLEASE
   REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC / TPC.
   
   MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
   MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. 
   MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL
   BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. / NRN
   ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ERN
   RIDGE -- EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY INTO
   THE ARCTIC.
   
   SURFACE LOW / FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
   FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LEE
   TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD
   REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS
   SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT --
   ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK / INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HURRICANE
   DENNIS...LARGE AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY / ELY FLOW CAN BE
   EXPECTED -- WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE STORM CIRCULATION -- FROM FL
   NWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND AL...AND INTO TN.  WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR / HELICITY FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
   TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN OUTER
   BANDS.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ONLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING
   THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
   DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
   RESULT IN STORM INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INVOF FRONT.  
   
   AS BELT OF STRONGER /35 TO 45 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD
   ACROSS MT / WY INTO WRN AND CENTRAL ND / WRN SD WITH TIME...SHEAR
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS. 
   THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
   WOULD SUGGEST THAT EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT HAIL
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING / SUPERCELL
   STORMS.  OVERNIGHT...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND POSSIBILITY FOR
   LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY YIELD MCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   WEAKER WIND FIELD / LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD COMBINE WITH STRONGER
   CAPPING TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN SD / ERN CO
   INTO NERN NM....AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SERN NM / W TX...MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED / LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  
   
   WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS THIS
   REGION...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. 
   FURTHER...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL RESULT IN
   SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. 
   THEREFORE...THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEARS TO EXIST...AND WILL EXTEND 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY SWD FROM
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE RIO GRANDE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z