Jul 28, 2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 28 17:15:37 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050728 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20050728 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 281713
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 35 SSW
   FAT 55 E UKI 50 WNW MHS 60 NNE MFR 10 ENE S80 30 WNW 3HT 40 WNW SHR
   25 NE SHR 20 NNE 4BQ 65 NNE OLF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E ELO 40 NNE ALO
   25 WNW IRK 10 SW MKC 20 W SLN 50 ENE LAA 10 S 4SL 15 SE GNT 45 WSW
   ONM ALM 30 S MAF 25 NNW AUS 50 NW POE GLH 15 ENE DYR 35 WSW SDF 25
   WNW HLG 25 SSE BGM 20 NNW POU 30 NNE EWB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
   EWD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF ASCENT
   AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
   STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST.
   
   A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD OSCILLATE
   NWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE
   FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
   ON THE AMOUNT OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
   REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
   THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILES AND
   RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST.
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   AN UPPER-RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS AZ AND
   UT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST
   TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR STRONG
   UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY IN AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S
   AND 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
   SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS PROFILES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
   EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
   RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 2 SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT
   WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. ELEVATED
   STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NE ND AND NW MN
   DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z