Jul 28, 2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Jul 28 17:15:37 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 281713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 35 SSW FAT 55 E UKI 50 WNW MHS 60 NNE MFR 10 ENE S80 30 WNW 3HT 40 WNW SHR 25 NE SHR 20 NNE 4BQ 65 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E ELO 40 NNE ALO 25 WNW IRK 10 SW MKC 20 W SLN 50 ENE LAA 10 S 4SL 15 SE GNT 45 WSW ONM ALM 30 S MAF 25 NNW AUS 50 NW POE GLH 15 ENE DYR 35 WSW SDF 25 WNW HLG 25 SSE BGM 20 NNW POU 30 NNE EWB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD OSCILLATE NWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... AN UPPER-RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS AZ AND UT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY IN AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS PROFILES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 2 SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NE ND AND NW MN DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |