SPC AC 010555
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
   ELO 20 WNW IWD 45 NNE EAU 40 WSW EAU RWF ATY 40 S Y22 50 NNW REJ 60
   NNW ISN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BHB 40 WNW 3B1
   ...CONT... 65 NNE MTC LAN RFD 25 SSE ALO 25 S FOD LNK HLC LAA TAD
   SAF 40 W ELP ...CONT... 40 SE YUM LAS BAM PUW 70 ENE 63S ...CONT...
   25 ENE CRP 40 WNW VCT MLU 20 WNW GLH MEM CKV 55 WSW LOZ GSO 40 WSW
   HSE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS AND  UPPER MIDWEST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM ALBERTA INTO MANITOBA
   DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH
   BRUSHING THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
   TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO NRN WY BY DAYBREAK
   WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN/WI.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
   SINCE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER
   TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN BETWEEN 850-650 MB...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
   BE INHIBITED MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A
   COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MECHANISMS SHOULD AID CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
   TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS NEWD INTO SRN MN. THIS VEERED JET MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A
   WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST BY BOTH GFS/NAM...MOVING EWD ACROSS
   THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AIR MASS
   SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING JET
   DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED/HIGHER
    BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN WI.
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT COMBINED WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
   OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN
   ND TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/UPPER LEVEL
   DIFFLUENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THE AIR MASS BETWEEN
   850-650 MB SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT
   FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN VERTICAL
   THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ONCE STORMS FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-35 KT AND MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DRY
   AIR ALOFT AND DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSSIBLY
   EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ND
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 08/01/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z