SPC AC 170614
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
   CMH 15 NE LOZ 20 SSE BWG 30 SSW CGI 25 WSW TBN 40 N SZL FOD 40 E MKT
   20 WSW EAU 15 ESE CWA 30 SSW MTW 15 ENE BEH 15 SE FDY 45 SSW CMH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 35 NW EDW
   55 ESE TVL 65 E 4LW 65 SSE S80 45 W 3HT 50 WSW MLS 45 ESE GDV 50 N
   MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ROC 30 SSE ELM
   25 W CXY 10 WNW SHD 20 S LYH 50 SSW RIC 20 NNE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE JCT 55 SSE DAL
   20 E MLC 45 WSW CNU 10 NW BIE 10 SSE OLU 20 SE BUB 50 NNW GLD 20 S
   LHX 20 WNW CVS 25 NW MAF 50 NE JCT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MS
   VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   
   ...MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
   
   COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE BEGINNING TO EMERGE IN REGARDS TO
   LOCATION/TIMING OF SEVERE ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
   NEGATED BY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF LATE EVENING
   MODELS...GFS/NAM/ECMWF...EJECTING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
   MS VALLEY.  NAM INSISTS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/CONVERGENT SOLUTION WITH
   STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHILE
   GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS FARTHER
   NORTH ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
   
   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ENHANCING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IL INTO
   IND...EXTENDING NWD INTO WI.  MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE DRIVEN
   BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS E-W BOUNDARY RETREATS TOWARD THE
   GREAT LAKES.  STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT
   SUGGEST SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF NAM SOLUTION IS
   CORRECT.
   
   ...DAKOTAS...
   
   FARTHER NW...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATE IN
   THE PERIOD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY WILL
   FORCE A STRONG FRONTAL SURGE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
   FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
   UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SFC FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS
   EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
   
   ..DARROW.. 08/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z