SPC AC 101721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
   ELO 25 NNE BRD 40 W MSP 30 S RWF 30 SSW ATY 30 N ABR 30 W JMS 65 N
   DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FHU 55 ESE SOW
   30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP
   25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 25 NNE Y22 15 SW BIS 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145
   NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE
   RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS
   ...CONT... 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 SSE LND
   25 SSE EVW 35 N MLF 10 SSW P38 70 W DRA 45 SE BIH 45 SW BIH 60 S TVL
   45 W RNO 15 N SVE 20 SE LMT 75 SE EUG 35 WNW RDM 45 E DLS 50 SSW S06
   15 WNW 3DU 25 NNW LVM 35 SSW BIL 35 ENE WRL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS
   AND NRN/WRN MN...
   
   ...ERN DAKS INTO NRN/WRN MN...
   LARGE PAC NW UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES
   SWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS IT FILLS...NRN
   PORTIONS OF THE LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
   STREAM...THEN BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD INTO CNTRL MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT.
    AS IT DOES SO...A FRONT...SITUATED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
   DAKS EARLY SUNDAY...WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD.  THIS
   FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS...PRIMARILY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS AND NRN/WRN MN.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  BUT...
   THE STRONG PERSISTENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED
   INITIATION DURING THE AFTN.  WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING CANADIAN TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW/
   MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LLJ MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION BY EVENING.
   AS A RESULT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET VCNTY THE FRONT OVER
   THE ERN DAKS/NWRN MN.  PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
   OVERALL SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS
   DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN.  TSTMS CLUSTERS SHOULD BACKBUILD
   INTO THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES TOWARD SWRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY.  THESE
   STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  FARTHER N...TSTMS
   MAY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF
   THE MCS AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/LLJ.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z