SPC AC 111726
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
   MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 60 NE OMA 10 WNW BIE 15 SSW HSI 20 SSE BBW
   35 NE AIA 50 NE DGW 25 SE 81V 55 ESE REJ 35 NW ABR 30 SE FAR 35 SSE
   BJI 45 NNW ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW GDP 65 W CVS 25
   NW EHA 10 W MCK 35 NW IML 45 NW 4FC 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC
   15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE
   WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15
   NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E
   P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20
   SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW
   AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAKENING WRN STATES UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN
   WAVE LATE TONIGHT-MON. AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
   TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY ALONG WITH
   INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  NUMEROUS JETLETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
   FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL
   TRAVEL ACROSS SRN CANADA TONIGHT AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR A MCS ACROSS
   ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT.  AT LEAST
   TWO MORE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
   LATER MON-MON NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD
   IN WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE AUGMENTED BY THE MN MCS
   FROM SRN MN WWD TO  ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER.  A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
   ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...THEN MOVE NEWD
   INTO CNTRL MN BY MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH SWD
   INTO W TX.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE
   TSTMS.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...
   BROAD WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
   POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ON MON. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN
   PLACE RECENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEAKER AS THE
   LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED
   TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE DAY. 
   BUT...AS THE CAP BECOMES BREACHED...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN MID-LATE AFTN.  THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH STRONGER BULK SHEAR 
   POLEWARD OF THE FRONT. THUS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS/LARGE HAIL.  TO THE N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL
   BE LOCATED...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF
   CONVECTION FROM ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN.
   
   MEANWHILE...A SECOND AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE
   STRONGEST OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY THE BLACK
   HILLS...AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY
   THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   09Z ENSEMBLES AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
   BE QUITE STRONG VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX
   MON AFTN.  SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRAZE THE
   REGION DURING THE EVENING AND MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
   ISOLD TSTMS.  AROUND 35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WOULD
   MAINLY BE OF MULTICELL VARIETY...BUT STILL PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/11/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z