SPC AC 260557
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TUL
   CNU MKC LWD OTM MLI MMO 35 NW LAF 10 SSE OWB 20 SE MKL UOX 10 SSE
   GWO 45 WNW JAN ELD TXK 20 W DEQ TUL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE GLS 30 NNE BPT
   20 WSW LFK 30 NNE TYR DUA CHK MHK OTG BRD 60 ENE GNA 85 NE MQT 35
   ENE APN MTC LUK HSV TOI 50 SSE AAF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
   
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER JET...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE
   NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY
   SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
   SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID- LEVEL
   CYCLOGENESIS.  CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING DETAILS OF
   THIS EVOLUTION.  HOWEVER...AFTER LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR
   CYCLONE CENTER LEVEL OFF LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL RAPID DEEPENING MAY NOT COMMENCE
   UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW
   LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
   
   MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALREADY
   APPEARS UNDERWAY AS CENTER OF BROAD POLAR LOW CONTINUES TO RETREAT
   NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.  BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS...AND AT LEAST LIMITED RETURN FLOW /CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S
   TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   INTO WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EMANATING
   FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.  THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH
   DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FEATURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS IN
   AMPLIFYING BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
   STATES.
   
   IN ITS WAKE...NORTHWARD RETURNING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER TEXAS/
   LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS WILL
   LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION. 
   COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...MODELS SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR
   MID-LEVEL COLD POOL TO LAG TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
   BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES...LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
   OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
   28/00Z...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. 
   HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
   FRONT AFTER 28/00Z...FROM PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...WHERE RAPID EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE MAY OCCUR DESPITE
   CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
   SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE.  HOWEVER...SHEAR BENEATH
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 70 KT
   SUNDAY EVENING/ WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL ALONG SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE
   EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
   
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   FORCING IS PROGGED TO LAG WELL BEHIND FRONT AT THAT TIME...AND
   ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED ABOVE/JUST TO THE WEST OF SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...LIMITING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/26/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z