SPC AC 100836
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
   MS VALLEY...
   
   A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER-TROUGH WILL SWING QUICKLY EWD OUT OF THE
   ROCKIES INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON DAY 3. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   SHOULD BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS NRN AR AND
   THE SRN MO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM COMES OUT DURING
   THE DAY...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK. AS THE STRONG
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT IN THE
   AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG
   WITH INSTABILITY FROM AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID
   STORM INITIATION FROM THE OZARKS EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH THE ERN
   HALF OF OK INTO NE TX. THE ETA FOR 00Z THU ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SHOWS
   SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG WITH ABOUT 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LIFT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE STORMS WITH SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE
   EVENING. AVN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE ARKLATEX AT 00Z THU SHOW
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE WIND DAMAGE AS
   THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR NE TX...AR AND NRN LA. THERE
   WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ROTATING CELLS WITHIN
   AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE BEST EARLY IN
   THE FORMATION OF THE LINE WHEN INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   STEEPEST ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX. THE SQUALL-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE
   EWD WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REACHING
   WRN MS AND WRN TN LATE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z