SPC AC 160852
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL
   PLAINS EWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...AS A CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
   SWWD ACROSS BC MAINTAINING DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SRN HALF
   OF THE COUNTRY.  MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
   THE CA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
   SEWD ACROSS BAJA TO NRN MEXICO AND TX. 
   
   ...NWRN GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...
   SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN GULF
   RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING EWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST AT
   BEST...GIVEN THAT THE QUALITY OF THE GULF AIR MASS WILL BE POOR PER
   COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF DURING DAY 1 AND DAY 2. IN
   ADDITION...DRY SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WILL ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ATOP THE MODEST GULF
   RETURN FLOW...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE WARM SECTOR.  THE 16/00Z NAM
   APPEARS TO BE RETURNING MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY ACROSS ERN TX/LA INTO
   AR ON FRIDAY...GIVEN THE FORECAST OF DRY SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. 
   THUS...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH STRONGER FORCING
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION...THE THREAT FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AR
   BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NWRN GULF COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z