May 30, 2005 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Mon May 30 08:09:36 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 300807 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NWRN STATES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT TRACKS E/SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH...GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE NEWD MOVEMENT OF THE GULF STATES TROUGH TOWARD THE NE...GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD EJECT IT MORE QUICKLY NEWD. THE GFS WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MREF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. ...SERN STATES... THE GULF STATES UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY 12Z THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND NNEWD TO THE SERN NC. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH A 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NRN FL TO SRN NC MAY SHOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TRENDS IN CLOUDS/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...SERN OK/MUCH OF ERN TX AND SWRN LA... THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THIS REGION DEPENDS UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN MOST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX/WRN OK AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 3. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS PROGGED OVER CENTRAL-SERN TX...GIVEN THIS REGION IS BENEATH MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER NNE INTO ERN OK...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF LATE DAY 2/EARLY DAY 3 STORMS...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST AXIS INTO ERN CO WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AIDING IN MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. 40 KT OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE. ..PETERS.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |