SPC AC 080814
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   NM...SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND WRN
   OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM WEST TX TO THE UPR MS VLY/GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONSIDERING THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND COMPLEXITY INVOLVED IN THE
   DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE DAY 3 PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO
   SATURDAY...PRESENTS A MORE CLASSIC AND PREDICTABLE SEVERE WEATHER
   SETUP ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF
   AGREEMENT AMONG A NUMBER OF MODELS THAT A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG
   NRN PACIFIC UPPER JET...WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. LARGE
   SCALE TROUGH...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE
   DAY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WITH REMARKABLE SIMILARITY IN
   LATEST GFS...NAM...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CMC MODELS...WITH THE SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SERN NM AT 72H...11/00Z...FRIDAY
   EVENING.
   
   ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC
   WHILE A DISTURBANCE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN IS FCST TO BE LOCATED OVER
   THE ERN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ...SERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS...
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.
   
   GIVEN ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
   OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND
   DEEPENING LEE-LOW SHOULD BE MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   COMMENCE EARLY IN THE DAY BUT CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
   DEVELOPMENT TOO EARLY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION.
   STRONGEST FORCING AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE
   ADVANCING SHORT WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM/SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE MDT RISK AREA. FOCUS FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL SRH
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXIST ALONG POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   SRN KS/NRN OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SFC LOW AND DRYLINE INFLECTIONS. IN
   ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...LATEST GUIDANCE
   SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.
   
   ...MO VLY TO WRN GREAT LAKES....
   QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOWS WILL LIE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG
   TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WITH
   SOME WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS MN INTO WI WHERE BOTH GFS
   AND NAM DEPICT A POSSIBLE WAVE TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE STALLED
   FRONT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z