SPC AC 160721
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   GRTLKS AND MIDWEST...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...LOWER GRTLKS SWWD TO THE MIDWEST...
   THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION ON
   SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO ON
   MONDAY.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD...REACHING
   SWRN ONTARIO...NWRN OH AND THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE MON NIGHT. A
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY EXIST
   AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS.
   
   THOUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO MODEST INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD FORM RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY
   GIVEN WEAK CINH EXPECTED AND PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS
   RAPIDLY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT GIVEN THAT
   THE REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST WLY FLOW
   ALOFT...A FEW STORMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD DURING THE EVENING...
   POSSIBLY REACHING WRN NY STATE AND THE MID-UPPER OH VLY OVERNIGHT. 
   SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES DURING THE NIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   SEGMENTED FRONTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD IN WAKE OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL PROBABLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL MO...KS
   AND ERN CO BY MON.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A MINIMUM IN SEVERE
   POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD BECOME DIVERGENT OVER THIS AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND REMAINS WLY FARTHER TO THE EAST.
   
   STRONGEST RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CO
   FRONT RANGE.  TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
   AFTN.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH NWLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS WILL
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 
   OTHER ACTIVITY COULD FORM FARTHER E ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF CO
   INTO WRN KS WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL.  A SMALL MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO
   ORGANIZE MON NIGHT ACROSS ERN CO...BUT EVOLUTION DETAILS ARE
   DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z