SPC AC 190735
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   AMPLIFICATION AND SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EAST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.  INFLUX OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR
   IS FORECAST ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS BY
   EARLY MONDAY.  HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
   INTO THE PLAINS...BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
   PERIOD...NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INLAND IN
   MORE OR LESS PIECEMEAL FASHION.
   
   ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT/ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL
   OVERSPREAD MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST OF
   THE APPALACHIANS...WITH PRIMARY SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER
   SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGH...STILL ONLY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION BY PEAK HEATING.
   
   STRONG HEATING SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EAST
   OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING NEAR
   COASTAL AREAS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
    ON WESTERN EDGE OF MARINE LAYER...MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
   2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
   FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT AT WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
   REACHED.  IF THIS OCCURS...BELT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF
   UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
   STRONGER STORMS.  
   
   SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT TOWARD COASTAL AREAS
   SUNDAY EVENING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS.  HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS REMOTE AT THE PRESENT
   TIME.
   
   ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS POSSIBLE LATE
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING...FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO
   PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.  THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE
   TO APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. 
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME QUITE
   STEEP...SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/19/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z