SPC AC 260803
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA AND THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH
   THIS FEATURE. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
   BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NERN U.S. EARLY SUNDAY. THE
   ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT
   LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. FARTHER S...
   ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WWD
   THROUGH S TX. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NWWD THROUGH THE ERN
   GULF. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
   
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST UNDERNEATH MODEST NWLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   AND WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD. THOUGH THE LOW TO MID
   LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
   EXIST FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS BY EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   
   ...FL AND SRN GA...
   
   FL AND SRN GA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE ERN THROUGH NERN
   QUADRANT OF KATRINA SUNDAY. STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER
   RAINBANDS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
   RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
   KATRINA.  
   
   ...NERN U.S....
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NY THROUGH PA. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD DURING THE DAY. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
   LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN
   VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION. ISOLATED STORMS COULD POSE A MARGINAL
   THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME SURFACE HEATING
   OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SELY PRE-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
   TRAJECTORIES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE
   OF DESTABILIZATION AND RESULTING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/26/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z