SPC AC 040708
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN INTO S-CNTRL
   SD/N-CNTRL NEB...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BACK INTO AN OPEN
   WAVE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS
   MB/ONTARIO.  MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL PERSIST
   ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WWD
   INTO THE DAKOTAS.  MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
   OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NW.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES...WITH TRAILING PART OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING
   QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN SD/NRN NEB TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
   DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO/WRN KS.
   
   ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PERSISTENT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF FRONTAL
   ZONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
   1500-2500 J/KG/ FORECAST FROM W-CNTRL WI INTO SRN SD/NRN NEB. 
   SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
   ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG LENGTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
   
   MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WITHIN REGION OF
   STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION /I.E. SRN MN INTO S-CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB/
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  INCREASED
   LOWER-LEVEL FORCING ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ MAY SUSTAIN A SEVERE
   THREAT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA.
   
   FARTHER TO THE W...OTHER STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NERN CO
   INTO FAR ERN WY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
   SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z