SPC AC 200722
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
   NATION WILL CONTINUE AS A DEEP...COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE NRN
   PLAINS SEWD INTO THE IL/IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE HEIGHT
   FALLS/COOLING ALOFT IN THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS...THOUGH GRADUAL
   HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN/ERN STATES. AS THE
   UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD...THE LEADING EDGE OF A 56-60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS
   DURING THE DAY. LATEST NHC FORECAST INDICATES HURRICANE WILMA WILL
   BE IN THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS...
   COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN TX/OK...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
   THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SERN VA SWWD INTO
   THE FL PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. AS THE HEIGHTS FALL AND SPEED MAX
   NEARS...THE BAROCLINICITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY AFTERNOON. HIGHER DEWPOINTS...65 TO
   70F...SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INLAND IN RESPONSE TO SLY AND SELY
   BOUNDARY WINDS. THESE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PLUS STRENGTHENING
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS SPEED MAX APPROACHES...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM CONCERNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES
   COMING TOGETHER AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO FORECAST MORE THAN A 5%
   SEVERE PROBABILITY.
   
   ...SRN FL PENINSULA...
   ALTHOUGH HURRICANE WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED MAKE POSSIBLE LANDFALL
   ACROSS SRN FL UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD...THE OUTER BANDS OF WILMA MAY
   BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WILMA
   IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
   SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN THE OUTER
   BANDS OF WILMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 10/20/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z