SPC AC 120641
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL EJECT NEWD AND DAMPEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
   CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OH VLY.  UPSTREAM STRONG
   JETLETS THAT WILL ENTER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUE WILL BEGIN TO
   DIG SWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY THU.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD IN WAKE OF THE
   SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SERN TX AND THE LWR MS
   VLY WED AFTN/EVE.  THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY DURING WED AFTN AS THE
   LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  
   
   ...SERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY...
   CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY WED ACROSS ERN TX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S DURING THE DAY AS A MODEST SSWLY LLJ
   TRANSLATES EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 
   GIVEN FAIRLY SHORT WAVELENGTHS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING IMPULSE AND THE
   DIGGING JETLETS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A FLUX OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED.  MAINTENANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR THE SRN EDGE OF ANY ONGOING PCPN TO INTENSIFY DURING
   PEAK HEATING.  WSWLY H5 FLOW AOA 50 KTS ATOP SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH WARM SECTOR
   DEVELOPMENT /AVAILABLE CAPE/ NWD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  ANY SEVERE
   THREAT THAT MATERIALIZES DURING THE AFTN WILL LIKELY DECREASE
   RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND FARTHER EWD
   WHERE RESIDUAL WEDGE LIMITS INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MS RVR. 
   
   GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FCST WITH RESPECT TO WARM SECTOR
   EVOLUTION ALONG THE COAST...WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES BELOW
   CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.
   
   ..RACY.. 12/12/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z