Jan 1, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 1 20:04:12 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060101 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060101 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060101 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060101 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 012001
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E
   BVE HUM 30 NW MSY 15 W MEI 35 WSW CBM 25 NNE MEM 30 S FAM 25 E VIH
   20 WSW JEF 35 NW COU 30 ESE IRK 25 NE UIN 35 ENE BMI LAF 20 E IND 35
   N SDF 45 E BWG 25 NNW CHA 15 NE RMG 15 ESE ATL 15 E MCN 50 WSW VDI
   25 W AYS 35 ESE VLD 20 N CTY 25 WSW CTY 65 SW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR
   45 S SRQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40
   SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 35 N LFT 50
   NNE HEZ 55 WSW MEM 30 W UNO 40 NNW SGF 25 SSE OJC 35 NE STJ 25 SW
   OXV 20 WSW CID 30 WSW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25
   ESE TRI 20 SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE GULF
   COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY...
   WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST
   WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY BEING ENHANCED BY
   MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW PASSING OVER SERN LA. ASCENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION CURRENTLY APPEARS DISTINCT FROM THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
   EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL
   FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   500-1000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITHIN
   WEST-TO-EAST BAND FROM SRN LA/MS ACROSS AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND RELATIVELY LIMITED INHIBITION
   COULD LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE OF
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SEE LATEST SWOMCD NUMBER 0003 FOR ADDITIONAL
   DETAILS.
   
   ...LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST TO TN VALLEY LATE...
   POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
   PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   AFTER DARK. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL MOIST
   AXIS FROM MIDDLE TN TO THE MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. STORMS DEVELOPING
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...AND EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING COMMA-HEAD
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
   
   WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GREATER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO
   BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z