Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 020613
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
   PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15
   WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL
   35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE
   FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
   BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40
   ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W
   GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW
   HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM
   50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE
   U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN
   10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E
   OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT...
   25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50
   ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
   STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...
   
   CORRECTED FOR HAIL...WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY GRAPHICS
   
   ...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM
   APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH
   LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER.
   AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN
   VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS
   CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS
   AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A
   DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN
   LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING
   SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF
   THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO
   THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
   MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS
   THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
   THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE
   STRONGEST.
   
   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS
   FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
   INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
   AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS
   OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO
   THE WRN ATLANTIC.
   
   ...PACIFIC COAST...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST
   TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
   THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOCUSING EWD
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN CA...NV
   AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
   EVENING. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z