Jan 8, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Jan 8 00:58:08 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 080055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM DLS RDM 60 N LMT 50 NW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FILL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS AREA IN GENERAL WNWLY FLOW REGIME. MOST PROMINENT OF THESE -- NOW MOVING INLAND WA/ORE BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT ASSUMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW. AT SFC...DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD AREA OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA FROM WRN GULF COAST REGION INTO CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN ORE AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CB EXTENDING FARTHER N ACROSS WA COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS ALSO. ALTHOUGH LATER ACTIVITY HAS NOT PRODUCED CG LIGHTNING DETECTIONS AS OF THIS WRITING...FAVORABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT FOR THUNDER WITH ABOUT 200 J/KG MUCAPE IN 00Z UIL SOUNDING. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WA/ORE AND INTERIOR NRN CA TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT SUCH THAT GEN TSTM FCST IS NOT NECESSARY. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |