Jan 8, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 8 00:58:08 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060108 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060108 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060108 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060108 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 080055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006
   
   VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM OLM DLS
   RDM 60 N LMT 50 NW 4BK.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FILL ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS AS SERIES OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS AREA IN GENERAL WNWLY FLOW REGIME. 
   MOST PROMINENT OF THESE -- NOW MOVING INLAND WA/ORE BASED ON
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT
   ASSUMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER INLAND PACIFIC NW.
   
   AT SFC...DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH BROAD AREA OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA FROM WRN GULF
   COAST REGION INTO CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  HOWEVER...AIR MASS
   E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS.
   
   ...PACIFIC NW...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...NOW
   MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN ORE AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.  VIS
   IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CB EXTENDING FARTHER N ACROSS WA
   COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS ALSO.  ALTHOUGH LATER ACTIVITY HAS NOT
   PRODUCED CG LIGHTNING DETECTIONS AS OF THIS WRITING...FAVORABLE
   LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT FOR THUNDER WITH ABOUT 200 J/KG
   MUCAPE IN 00Z UIL SOUNDING.  VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
   FARTHER INLAND ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WA/ORE AND INTERIOR NRN CA
   TONIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT SUCH THAT GEN
   TSTM FCST IS NOT NECESSARY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z