Jan 12, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Jan 12 00:46:17 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 120042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HSE 10 W EWN 10 NNE FAY 25 SSW DAN 25 SSE LYH 25 ENE CHO 10 N MRB 10 NNE AOO 45 ESE BFD 15 WSW ITH 35 NW ALB 10 SE LCI 35 ESE PWM 60 ESE PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC... CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS AREAS OF SERN VA AND NERN NC THIS EVENING AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PA/NY UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER OF MARITIME MOISTURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT/WEAKENING FRONT. LIFT ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD STILL PROVOKE A FEW TSTMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND VA CAPES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...NORTHEAST... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM PA/NY TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. LIFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN A FEW TSTMS ACROSS PA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE MOIST PLUME AND EVOLVING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND INDICATIVE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT EXIST AHEAD OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS INDICATED IN EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM WAL AND OKX AND WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION OF STRONGEST ASCENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DC-NY-BOS CORRIDOR TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |