Jan 12, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 12 00:46:17 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060112 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060112 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060112 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060112 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 120042
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HSE 10 W EWN
   10 NNE FAY 25 SSW DAN 25 SSE LYH 25 ENE CHO 10 N MRB 10 NNE AOO 45
   ESE BFD 15 WSW ITH 35 NW ALB 10 SE LCI 35 ESE PWM 60 ESE PWM.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC...
   CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING ACROSS AREAS OF SERN VA AND NERN
   NC THIS EVENING AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN
   PA/NY UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...A
   DEEP LAYER OF MARITIME MOISTURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS  THE COASTAL
   PLAIN AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT/WEAKENING FRONT. LIFT ALONG
   THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COULD STILL PROVOKE A
   FEW TSTMS WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND
   VA CAPES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING FROM PA/NY TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
   LIFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE
   HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN A FEW TSTMS ACROSS PA OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE MOIST PLUME AND EVOLVING BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND
   INDICATIVE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT EXIST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   IMPULSE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WAS INDICATED IN EVENING SOUNDINGS
   FROM WAL AND OKX AND WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION OF
   STRONGEST ASCENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
   REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DC-NY-BOS CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z