SPC AC 131237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
   HUM 25 SE BTR 35 WSW MEI 35 SW 0A8 25 WSW TOI 10 NNE MGR 30 SSW SAV
   15 ESE FLO 30 NW RWI 25 SW ORF 40 ENE HSE ...CONT... 40 ENE SGJ 15 E
   GNV 40 SW PIE.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW
   7R4 25 NW MCB 15 ENE CBM 40 SE BWG 40 WNW SDF 20 ESE IND 20 S DAY 15
   WSW HTS 35 ENE TRI 10 ESE ROA 25 NE HGR 15 ENE ABE 45 ESE NEL
   ...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 35 SW APF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 20 ENE HEZ
   MEM 45 SW EVV 40 ENE SLO 40 N DNV 25 NNE AZO 20 W MTC 20 NNW YNG 25
   ESE BUF 20 NNE SYR 15 E GFL 25 NE ORH 35 SW ACK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
   30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE LA/SRN AL INTO NRN
   FL/SRN GA...AND FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SATELLITE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TODAY
   AS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW OVER NE TX/NW LA CONTINUES E/SE INTO
   THE NRN GULF AND UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE RCKYS. SURFACE LOW
   NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE E
   ACROSS KY TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS
   INTO MD/SRN PA EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE
   GULF CST STATES/GA AND FL TODAY/TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
   FRONT LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS ERN NC/VA AND MD LATER
   IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH.
   
   ...ERN LA/MS INTO S GA/FL...
   PROPAGATION OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE THAT FORMED LAST EVENING IN ERN
   OK/AR HAS CARRIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT E OF ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT IN KY/MIDDLE TN...NW AL AND CNTRL MS.  NRN PART OF LINE SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS LATER
   THIS MORNING.  SRN PART OF SQUALL LINE...SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN
   STRONG AND MAY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION SWD INTO THE GULF AS IT
   ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS SE MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
   
   RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS OVER NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA...AND
   UPLAND SC...SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THOSE
   AREAS AS CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES THROUGH.  FARTHER S...
   HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF
   AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...50-60 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT
   SEGMENT OVER THE NRN GULF /NEAR MOB/...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HIGH WIND...A COUPLE
   TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE/SPREAD E ACROSS SRN
   AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS
   EVENING.
   
   FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN
   FL...WHERE MODERATE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE BENEATH
   STRENGTHENING /40-50 KT/ WLY FLOW ALOFT.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ...
   CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
   DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ERN SC/NC RAOBS AND SURFACE DATA
   OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOW PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVER
   THE REGION.  THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINA
   COASTAL PLAIN INTO AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER
   TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND 50 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE
   BOWS/TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   ...OH VLY...
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DPVA DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPPER VORT NOW OVER
   CNTRL AR...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY INITIATE A SECONDARY AREA OF
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN IND/KY. 
   EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED...AND
   UPPER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK ALOFT.  THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND REGION MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 01/13/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z