Jan 21, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Jan 21 00:56:10 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 210054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT 25 E FSM 15 SSW SGF 25 SE SZL 20 SE IRK 15 SE MLI 20 SE RFD 40 S AZO 25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15 NNE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 15 SE JAN 20 NNE MEI 15 WNW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AUS 40 NNE CLL 25 ESE GGG 35 WSW IER 25 NNE HOU 40 N PSX 45 NW VCT 25 SSE AUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN AR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS LINE DESPITE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS...ON THE ORDER OF 100-200J/KG. IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SFC THUS ANY TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD BE HAMPERED DUE TO MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN MO AND NRN AR BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS HARDLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. ...GULF COAST... SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED BENEATH RESTRICTIVE LAYER OF INHIBITION AT MID LEVELS OVER SERN TX THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND PRODUCED LIGHTNING NEAR CLL...NW OF HOUSTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY AT TIMES GENERATE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE DISSIPATING CLOSER TO THE LA BORDER. FARTHER EAST...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITHIN MOIST FEED OFF THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |