Jan 21, 2006 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 21 00:56:10 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060121 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060121 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060121 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060121 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 210054
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006
   
   VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT
   25 E FSM 15 SSW SGF 25 SE SZL 20 SE IRK 15 SE MLI 20 SE RFD 40 S AZO
   25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15 NNE
   PBF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 15 SE JAN 20
   NNE MEI 15 WNW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AUS 40 NNE CLL
   25 ESE GGG 35 WSW IER 25 NNE HOU 40 N PSX 45 NW VCT 25 SSE AUS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   
   LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN AR.  ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS LINE DESPITE THE MEAGER
   INSTABILITY NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS...ON THE
   ORDER OF 100-200J/KG.  IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED
   JUST ABOVE THE SFC THUS ANY TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD
   BE HAMPERED DUE TO MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...SQUALL
   LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN MO AND NRN AR BEFORE
   SLOWLY WEAKENING EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS HARDLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.
   
   ...GULF COAST...
   
   SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED BENEATH RESTRICTIVE LAYER OF
   INHIBITION AT MID LEVELS OVER SERN TX THIS EVENING.  OVER THE LAST
   HALF HOUR A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND PRODUCED LIGHTNING
   NEAR CLL...NW OF HOUSTON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
   FRONT AND MAY AT TIMES GENERATE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE
   DISSIPATING CLOSER TO THE LA BORDER.
   
   FARTHER EAST...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
   THREAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITHIN MOIST FEED OFF THE NRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DUE TO WEAK
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/21/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z