Jan 23, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon Jan 23 16:12:09 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 231608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM 40 S JAN 20 NNW CBM 30 WNW RMG 20 S AVL 20 SSW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KY/TN. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...LEAVING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |