Jan 23, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 23 16:12:09 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060123 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060123 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060123 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060123 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 231608
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1008 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S HUM 40 S JAN 20
   NNW CBM 30 WNW RMG 20 S AVL 20 SSW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE
   SGJ 60 SSW CTY.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   KY/TN. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
   TODAY...LEAVING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE
   OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG
   SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
   FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOW THE
   POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG...ALONG
   WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK
   OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. 
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...PRECLUDING A
   CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..HART.. 01/23/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z