Jan 24, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Jan 24 05:06:09 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 240502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN 45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 10 NE GCN 25 NNE INW 50 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. AND CANADA BLOCK WILL OCCUR AS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND CUTOFF LOW / CURRENTLY OFF THE SRN CA COAST / BEGINS LIFTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEAR 150W/40N. IN THE E...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD. ...AZ/NM... 24/00Z NKX/TUS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING NECESSARY FOR ANY THREAT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY MOISTENING WILL OCCUR VIA ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. ABOVE 700 MB/ FROM S AND SW OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE ERN PACIFIC. WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS FEED OF MOISTURE TO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT / AFTER 25/06Z / AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |