Jan 24, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 24 05:06:09 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060124 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060124 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060124 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060124 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 240502
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN
   45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 10 NE GCN 25 NNE
   INW 50 S DMN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE
   DAY ONE PERIOD.  BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. AND CANADA BLOCK
   WILL OCCUR AS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND CUTOFF LOW /
   CURRENTLY OFF THE SRN CA COAST / BEGINS LIFTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO
   APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEAR 150W/40N. IN THE E...LONGWAVE
   TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD.
   
   ...AZ/NM...
   
   24/00Z NKX/TUS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY
   ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING NECESSARY FOR ANY
   THREAT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY MOISTENING WILL OCCUR VIA ADVECTION OF
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. ABOVE 700 MB/ FROM S AND SW OF MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION OFF THE ERN PACIFIC.
   
   WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS FEED OF MOISTURE TO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH
   STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT / AFTER 25/06Z / AS THE
   MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ACTS ON THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/24/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z