Feb 13, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 13 19:08:09 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML|PDF|DOC formats.
Categorical Graphic
20060213 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060213 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060213 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060213 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 131905
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006
   
   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z.
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...EAST  OF ROCKIES...
   AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS AND FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH CENTRAL
   U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   ITS WAKE WILL BE TOO SLOW TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
   NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.
   
   ...WEST OF ROCKIES...
   A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST STATES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
   HOWEVER...COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE CASCADES... AND
   LACK OF ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WEST...WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/13/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z