Feb 21, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 21 16:20:14 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060221 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060221 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060221 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060221 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 211617
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006
   
   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT
   LAKES TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD
   OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW MOVING UPPER
   LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. 
   DOWNSTREAM...SRN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN MIXING/ERODING
   ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
   REGION.  LATER TONIGHT...WSWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
   ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STRONG UPPER JET MAX OVER THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
   THEREFORE SUPPORT INCREASED MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX
   REGION...POSSIBLY BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
   IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY GENERATE A SMALL SLIVER OF
   ELEVATED CAPE LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG. 
   THEREFORE...EXPECT NEGLIGIBLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z.
   
   ..EVANS.. 02/21/2006
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z