Feb 21, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Feb 21 16:20:14 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 211617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM...SRN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN MIXING/ERODING ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. LATER TONIGHT...WSWLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF VERY STRONG UPPER JET MAX OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT INCREASED MOIST CONVECTION INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...POSSIBLY BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/TN RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY GENERATE A SMALL SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE LATER TONIGHT WITH MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...EXPECT NEGLIGIBLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z. ..EVANS.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |