SPC AC 231955
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006
   
   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN FL...
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM S OF JAX TO S OF TLH WITHIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED
   WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  DESPITE RATHER STRONG
   VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR / EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-55 KTS
   /...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   ORGANIZATION.
   
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS
   THIS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES.
   
   ...SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...
   
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH / WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS BAJA INTO NWRN MEXICO / WILL
   AID IN WEAK AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION LATE TONIGHT.  THIS
   FORCING/DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
   RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEVELOPING SRN BRANCH JET STREAK SHOULD
   SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE
   TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NY/PA/WV...
   
   AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
   FRIDAY MORNING.  DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES / I.E. -30 TO -35 C AT 500 MB / HAVE RESULTED IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
   SRN LOWER MI AS OF 19Z.  SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SEWD AND ENCOUNTERS
   THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   FARTHER TO THE E...ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ALONG THE NY/NJ BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AND NO THUNDER
   AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/23/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z