Feb 24, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Feb 24 19:46:14 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 241944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM INTO SWRN TX... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOBILE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SONORA MEXICO...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WRN TX. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN NM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SURFACE WINDS...CURRENT ELP VWP SHOWS 60-65 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF FAR WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MD 0165. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER W-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF A WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/EXPAND EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |