SPC AC 241944
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN NM INTO SWRN TX...
   
   AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOBILE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
   SONORA MEXICO...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE
   WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WRN TX.  INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER SWRN NM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF
   AROUND 500 J/KG. 
   
   DESPITE WEAK SURFACE WINDS...CURRENT ELP VWP SHOWS 60-65 KT SWLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER 
   SHEAR. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING
   STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF FAR
   WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.  
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MD 0165.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
   W-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF A WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
   SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/EXPAND EWD INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z