SPC AC 250042
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...WEST TX/SRN NM...
   
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND MOVED ACROSS THE
   MEXICAN/TX BORDER...JUST SE OF ELP.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
   WITHIN A FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WHERE CONDITIONAL
   INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE.  EPZ
   SOUNDING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES AS FLOW VEERS NICELY WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY EXISTS NORTH OF EJECTING JET MAX.  AS UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES WEST TX IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
   THE BIG BEND REGION INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. 
   EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED BY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE
   RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS BEFORE SFC-BASED
   ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...FUELED BY WEAKER
   INSTABILITY AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/25/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z