SPC AC 030551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF
   THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE SOUTH OF
   POLAR VORTEX WHICH IS NOW BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
   MARITIMES.  SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING WITHIN CONFLUENT BRANCHES OF
   POLAR WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   THIS...LIKELY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDDLE/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER TROUGH
   IN WEAK SUBTROPICAL STREAM...NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY
   EASTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.
   
   FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING
   TO DIG SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
   INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
   PACIFIC.  SYSTEM WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE TO LIFT OUT OF BASE
   OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH...ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THROUGH
   THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...SURFACE FRONT SEEMS
   LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...DURING THE DAY...PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...
   HEATING OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL
   CAPPING IS A CONCERN...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE NEAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS MAY BECOME
   ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
   STREAMS.  INHIBITION MAY BECOME WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING NEAR
   SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE DIMINISHING/SHIFTING OFFSHORE.
   
   ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   MUCH OF REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY COLD SURGE ACROSS
   THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
   NEW MEXICO MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING...AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND DIFLUENT
   UPPER FLOW.  THOUGH CAPE WILL LIKELY BE WEAK...MODELS DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR INCREASING UP TO 50 KT...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
   WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THEREAFTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
   PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...JUST NORTH OF CAPPING SHORT WAVE
   RIDGE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
   INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   STRONG FORCING/COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA/WESTERN UTAH BY PEAK
   HEATING THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AND WEAK CAPE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. 
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD AID DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR/GUYER.. 03/03/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z