SPC AC 080055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   AND ERN KS...WRN MO AND NERN OK...
   
   ...KS/MO...
   
   EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING
   OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A
   SECONDARY...WEAKER IMPULSE ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRESENT OVER CNTRL
   NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ERN CO
   WITH INVERTED FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
   SD.  A WARM FRONT STRETCHED SEWD THROUGH ERN NEB AND THEN EWD
   THROUGH CNTRL MO...WHILE DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM CNTRL KS TO FAR WRN
   OK INTO SWRN TX.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS HAVE INHIBITED
   SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OK/KS DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  THESE FACTORS INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
   RIDGING...CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-CLOUDINESS AND THE RESULTANT
   MAINTENENCE OF A STRONG CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS /REFERENCE
   08/00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS/.  THIS CAP WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH NEWD
   EXTENT INTO NERN KS WHERE TOP SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE OR NO
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A MUCAPE OF 1000 J/KG FOR A PARCEL BASED
   AROUND 850 MB.
   
   LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 03-06Z OVER ERN
   KS INTO WRN MO...PERHAPS AS SWLY LLJ RE-FOCUSES WWD OVER OK/KS IN
   RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WEAKER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF NM. 
   GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON
   REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
   J/KG...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ...SWRN TX...
   
   TSTM WHICH DEVELOPED OVER PECOS COUNTY EARLIER HAS WEAKENED
   CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY AS IT MOVED E OF THE
   LOCAL AREA THAT SUPPORTED IT/S INITIATION.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
   RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE 08/00Z DRT SOUNDING
   SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE CAP AROUND 780 MB...WHICH IS LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM/S DEMISE.  NO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. 
   THEREFORE...NO THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/08/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z