SPC AC 081304
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY INTO THE
   SRN PLNS AND OZARKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY REACHED
   MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE.  IT SHOULD TURN MORE E/SE ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY
   BEFORE ENTERING THE SRN PLNS EARLY THURSDAY.  WHILE THE STRONGEST
   HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE SRN PLNS LATE TONIGHT/
   EARLY THURSDAY...EWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM AND THERMAL GRADIENT
   AHEAD OF IT SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING WILL
   BEGIN TO AFFECT KS/OK AND WRN/NRN TX BY AFTERNOON.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...LOW NOW OVER CNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE NE TO NEAR KCHI BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER SE CO LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
   GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS OK TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT DRY
   LINE TO MIX WELL E ACROSS SRN KS AND INTO CNTRL OK TODAY... BEFORE
   BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR KCNU TO KOKC TO KSPS THIS
   EVENING.  COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE INTO CNTRL OK AND NW TX THURSDAY
   MORNING.
   
   ...MO/IL/IND...
   CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM ADVECTION
   ZONE ON NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ.  THIS JET SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL KS. 
   ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF
   SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGEST POTENTIAL
   FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS.  THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
   MO/SRN IA AND IL TODAY...AND IND/SRN OH EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ...EXTREME NE KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK/NW AR AND NRN TX...
   MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST IN
   WARM SECTOR N OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..WITH
   DEWPOINTS REACHING IN THE UPR 50S IN ERN KS/WRN MO...AND THE LOW 60S
   IN SE OK.  NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING... WEAK MID
   LVL COOLING...AND CONVERGENCE INVOF KS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER NW MO OR EXTREME NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER
   STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/TROUGH
   INTO SE KS/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY NW TX.  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER
   KG/ AND 50-60 KT DEEP SHEAR.  ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY
   ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT INVOF KS/MO SURFACE WAVE.  STRENGTH OF DEEP
   SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES  DURING THE EARLY STAGES
   OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN OK/NW TX.
   
   BACKING MID LVL FLOW AND RAPID INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
   QUASILINEAR CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER CNTRL/SRN
   MO...ERN OK AND NW AR. WITH DEEP LAYER SWLY SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA
   60 KTS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR HIGH
   WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
   
   FARTHER S...A LOW PROBABILITY WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM SE MO/NE AR SWWD INTO NE TX...IN ZONE
   OF INCREASING LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS.  VERY STRONG /60 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N
   /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ SUGGEST A THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING
   TORNADOES...IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP IN MODERATELY CAPPED
   ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE
   CERTAIN LATER TODAY...PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND PERHAPS NE TX MAY
   REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. 
   
   ...SE CO/SW KS/OK-TX PNHDL RGN...
   MID LVL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH E/NELY LOW LVL
   WINDS/WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW STORMS OVER SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SE INTO WRN/CNTRL  OK AND NW
   TX THURSDAY MORNING.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/08/2006
   
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