SPC AC 101238
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. REMAINS BETWEEN
   STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING NEWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND BROAD
   UPPER TROUGH GAINING AMPLITUDE OVER THE WRN U.S.  AHEAD OF WRN U.S.
   SYSTEM...BROAD AREA OF STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
   THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
   LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS IDENTIFIED
   SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN UPPER
   JET STREAM SHIFTING QUICKLY NEWD FROM SRN TX INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  LEADING FEATURE NOW OVER SRN AL HAS BEEN ENHANCING
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SRN AL INTO SWRN GA EARLY THIS MORNING. 
   ADDITIONAL FEATURE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING ELEVATED MOIST
   CONVECTION NEAR CRP.
   
   EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED OVER THE DEEP
   SOUTH FROM CENTRAL GA SWWD INTO SRN LA AND THE NWRN GULF OF
   MEXICO...WITH VERY COOL/DRY AIR TO ITS NORTH.  HOWEVER...A NARROW
   WEDGE OF BUOYANT AIR REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM
   FAR SERN LA INTO SRN MS/SRN AL/SWRN GA EARLY THIS MORNING.  IN
   ADDITION...AIR MASS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FAR SRN TX
   REMAINS UNAFFECTED BY YESTERDAYS EVENT WITH LARGE RESERVOIR OF MID
   60-LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GA/SC...
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
   UNDER BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST...MORNING HEATING MAY ENHANCE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   INCREASING THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES INTO SRN AL/WRN FL
   PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA. FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE SHOULD DEVELOP
   ACTIVITY NEWD ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT INTO CENTRAL GA
   AND SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
   RECOVERY INTO THIS AREA MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS
   SPREADING NEWD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.  INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD SUPPORT NWD RETURN OF RICH MARINE AIR INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
   VALLEY AND CENTRAL AL/MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  HERE...COMBINATION OF
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  IN
   ADDITION... STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL
   ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH...
   REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT UNDER COUPLED
   UPPER JETS WHICH...COMBINED WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE SRN
   STREAM DISTURBANCES...MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
   RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL LIFT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
   TX...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
   BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE
   MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT. 
   THEREFORE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   POSSIBLY TORNADOES SHOULD ASCENT OVERCOME WEAK WARM NOSE BETWEEN H85
   AND H7.
   
   AFTER DARK...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID
   SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...MID MO ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT ALONG NOSE OF BROAD 50 KT SSWLY LLJ.  STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
   FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/10/2006
   
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