Mar 16, 2006 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 16 05:52:12 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060316 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060316 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060316 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060316 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 160550
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W-CENTRAL/SW TX...S-CENTRAL/SE
   TX TO EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN MS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING
   RIDGE FROM S-CENTRAL TX ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH PERIOD...IN WAKE
   OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
   SEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN CANADA UPPER VORTEX. 
   ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM OVER SERN NEB -- SHOULD MOVE
   ESEWD ALONG PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD NC BY 17/12Z. 
   ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND
   LOWER MS VALLEY...DECELERATING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW OVER SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION BY END OF PERIOD. 
   LONG-LASTING EPISODE OF WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   LEE-SIDE HEIGHT FALLS IN LOW LEVELS OVER SW TX AND NM. THIS WILL
   MAINTAIN VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND MOISTENING ABOVE FRONTAL
   SFC.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL TX...
   BAND OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF COLD FRONT BETWEEN
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN HILL COUNTRY OF S-CENTRAL/SW TX.  DAMAGING
   DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT -- LIMITING HODOGRAPH
   SIZE -- VEERING WIND PROFILES IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND 35-45 KT
   MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...SUPPORTING
   BLEND OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL...LINEAR AND MRGL SUPERCELL MODES TO
   TSTMS OVER AREA.  PLUME OF MID/UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS NOW IS
   EVIDENT OVER DEEP S TX...NERN MEX AND ADJACENT PORTION S WRN GULF. 
   MOIST SECTOR SHOULD BROADEN SOMEWHAT AND LIFT NWD THROUGH
   EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF PERIOD...ENCOUNTERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OUTLOOK
   AREA.  BULK OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...NOCTURNAL -- S-CENTRAL/SW TX...
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE ALL
   NIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. 
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AFTER
   DARK...AND PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH END OF PERIOD...AS MORE PARCELS ARE
   RAISED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC.  OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS...ELEVATED MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES
   AROUND PERMIAN BASIN OR SOUTH-PLAINS REGION OF W TX...GENERALLY
   DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT.  EVEN WHEN TRUNCATING RELATIVELY
   STABLE/LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF FRONT FROM KINEMATIC
   PROFILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
    FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THROUGH
   LOWEST HALF OF STORM DEPTH...INDICATING SUFFICIENT PROBABILITIES FOR
   ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL TO INCLUDE WITHIN CATEGORICAL
   SLGT RISK LINE.
   
   ...SRN/ERN NM...
   PEAK DIABATIC HEATING IN MID/LATE AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH MRGL
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH-BASED TSTM
   INITIATION OVER BORDERLANDS REGION OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  STRONG
   GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
   EXPECT FAVORABLY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- EXCEEDING 8 DEG
   C/KM ON AVERAGE FROM SFC-500 MB -- LEADING TO MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT
   300 J/KG IN MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS IN S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM
   LATE AFTERNOON.  CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD DEVELOP
   OVER REGION...WITH SELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW OVER SERN NM AND SWLY
   WINDS ACROSS SWRN NM AND AZ CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
   ASCENT.  35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED.  ORGANIZED
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MITIGATION OF BUOYANCY.  THIS REGIME SHOULD
   EVOLVE INTO ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME
   ACROSS SRN AND ERN NM DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRANSITIONING
   INTO NWRN PORTION OF ELEVATED RETURN FLOW AIR MASS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
   
   ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 03/16/2006
   
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