SPC AC 171300
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND SRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS WEST COAST TROUGH
   CONTINUES INLAND AND UPR VORTEX LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN
   MARITIMES.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF PLAINS RIDGE...
   AND FURTHER WEAKENING OF EXISTING SRN BRANCH JET.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SW ACROSS SRN TX AND
   NRN MEXICO TODAY.  MIXING AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE SRN
   RCKYS MAY ALLOW WRN PART OF BOUNDARY TO REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS SW TX
   AND SE NM BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
   SATURDAY.
   
   ...WRN AND SW TX/SE NM...
   A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL EXIST LATER
   TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE LWR PECOS/BIG BEND REGION OF
   TX NWD INTO PARTS OF FAR ERN NM...NW TX AND PERHAPS WRN OK.
   
   CURRENT SURFACE AND VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT SHALLOW LAYER OF
   COOL/DRY POST FRONTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SW ACROSS SW TX
   AND ERN NM TODAY.  ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK SHOULD HINDER LOW LEVEL
   DESTABILIZATION.  SOME CLEARING MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR BY LATE
   AFTERNOON E/N OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.
   
   CAP ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE
   SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ANY LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT DO
   SEE SOME CLEARING.  BUT HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR SW TX
   AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR/S OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD YIELD A FEW
   AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.  GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DEPICTED
   BY 12Z KDRT RAOB /PW 1.32 INCHES AND MIXING RATIO 13.6 G PER
   KG/...THE LIKELY NWD/WWD SPREAD OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE PECOS
   VLY...AND 50-60 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG
   SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND.
   
   ONCE STORMS FORM...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU AND S CNTRL TX...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...HAIL-PRODUCING STORM CLUSTERS.  THESE
   STORMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
   AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP N/NE INTO NW TX AND OK TONIGHT/EARLY
   SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS ABOVE STALLING FRONT.  THE
   SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD...HOWEVER...DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT DUE
   TO THE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NATURE OF INSTABILITY.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/17/2006
   
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