SPC AC 171621
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN/WRN TX INTO FAR SERN
   NM...
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SRN TX AND NRN MEXICO
   TODAY...WHILE BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE SRN PLAINS IN
   ADVANCE OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.  IN RESPONSE TO LARGE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE SWRN U.S...SELY LLJ WILL
   REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SWRN TX AND SERN NM THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
   ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
   APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE NOW MOVING
   INTO CENTRAL TX.  THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN SPREADING THESE STORMS
   INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE MORNING.  12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE
   REGION.  THEREFORE...ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR
   WITH STRONGER CELLS WHICH ARE FED BY GREATER INSTABILITY OVER SWRN
   TX.  ANY RESIDUAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS STORMS
   SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...MODEST HEATING WILL OCCUR INTO FAR
   SWRN TX...WHERE NWRN EXTENT OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN
   PLACE. HEATING ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALLOW A FEW
   STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS
   AND AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  IF THESE STORMS CAN
   SURVIVE WEAK CAPPING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG
   AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. 
   THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS
   INTO FAR SWRN TX AND THE BIG BEND REGION...WHICH COULD SURVIVE
   TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
   THE PERIOD...NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS
   SWRN/WRN TX WHERE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..EVANS.. 03/17/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z