SPC AC 271603
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CST MON MAR 27 2006
   
   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
   COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SWWD FROM THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
   ACROSS IA WILL DRAG SWD THRU THE TX HILL COUNTRY TODAY.  BY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM JUST S OF DAL TO S OF
   SJT THEN WWD INTO FAR SWRN TX.
   
   OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OFF WRN GULF ON
   30-40KT LOW LEVEL SLY JET INTO SRN AND CENTRAL TX. WHILE AFTERNOON
   HEATING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN MOST UNSTABLE AIR
   ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...THE HIGH
   CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN MEX
   WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST BY LATE AFTERNOON CIN WILL WEAKEN
   SUFFICIENTLY VICINITY LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX FOR
   SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN MEX PROVIDING SOME
   ASCENT...COUPLED WITH EXISTING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40
   KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AS
   EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY AND S OF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE
   FROM NRN HILL COUNTRY WWD INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS. SEVERE PARAMETERS
   ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE
   EVENING HOURS  WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
   SEVERE...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SWRN TX SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
   TX WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..HALES/GUYER.. 03/27/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z