Mar 29, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Mar 29 12:56:10 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 291253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD ACROSS TX. AT THE SFC...THE OLD FRONT ACROSS N TX IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT AS 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET RETURNS INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NWRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN TX AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW BECOMES ORGANIZED VICINITY OF SERN MT BY THIS EVENING. ...PLAINS... OVERNIGHT NON-SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY IN TX TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE RETURN OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HOWEVER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW'S CONFIRM ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONTINUING WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB. TX CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AM AS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES ON TO E AND THIS WILL ALLOW 60F DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NWD THRU TX E OF DRY LINE WITH MID 50S ACROSS OK TO KS BORDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ASCENT AND STRONGER SHEAR WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL NOT IMPINGE ON THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL AFTER DARK...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON DRY LINE COUPLED WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. OVERNIGHT THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-50 KT AND THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW SUPERCELLS. AGAIN PRIMARY THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL. SEVERE COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THRU THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION WHERE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL UT TO WRN AZ. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS. ..HALES/GRAMS.. 03/29/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |