Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 011956
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF SWRN KS / THE ERN OK AND TX PNHDLS / WRN OK AND NWRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
   THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX...
   
   --CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS--
   
   ...CNTRL / SRN PLAINS...
   
   19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
   ERN CO WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SERN
   CO/SWRN KS AND INTO NERN OK...WHILE DRY LINE WAS BECOMING BETTER
   DEFINED FROM E OF DHT TO E OF MAF.  RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
   IS IN PROGRESS E OF THE DRY LINE AND S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NWRN
   TX ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK INTO WRN KS. MODIFICATION
   OF 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM MAF AND AMA FOR MORE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER TO
   THE E YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP.
   
   RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY 21-22Z ALONG DRY LINE FROM
   THE TX PNHDL NWD TO ALONG ITS INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT AS WEAK
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL NM APPROACHES WRN EDGE OF
   INSTABILITY AXIS.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY ONLY
   MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH INTENSIFICATION OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE
   FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND TORNADOES. 
   IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL
   EXIST PRIMARILY BETWEEN 23-03Z AS BOUNDARY-LAYER RH INCREASES AND
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FURTHER INTENSIFIES /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
   M2/S2/.
   
   CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS KS/NEB
   TONIGHT AS LLJ BROADENS AND INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND
   SURFACE-BASED.
   
   
   ...NERN TX / ERN OK / AR / NRN LA...
   
   ERN EXTENSION OF WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF TUL TO NEAR HOT AND
   THEN EWD ACROSS NRN MS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
   MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
   1000-2000 J/KG.  AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
   DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SWD INTO FREE
   WARM SECTOR.  WHILE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT.
   
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT. PERSISTENT
   TSTM CLUSTER JUST N OF WARM FRONT OVER FAR NERN OK INTO SWRN MO MAY
   ALSO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO INFLUX OF UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   FROM THE SW...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN
   MO.
   
   ...SERN VA / NERN NC...
   
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE TIDEWATER REGION WITH
   MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO DE
   WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING
   STORMS.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS
   ACROSS SERN VA INTO NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
   AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA.  THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/01/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z