Apr 14, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 14 13:04:15 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060414 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20060414 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20060414 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20060414 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 141300
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006
   
   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY INTO
   THE CNTRL APLCNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE...DIFFLUENT WNWLY JET PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
   WILL KEEP CORRIDOR FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
   CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS PERIOD.  LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH
   YESTERDAY'S STORMS IS NOW OVER SE MI AND SHOULD REACH THE
   NJ/DELMARVA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRAILING S/SW INTO MN FROM STRONG IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN
   ONTARIO.  FARTHER S...SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A MORE SRN
   DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PHASE WITH THE MN FEATURE AND SWEEP ESE ACROSS
   THE OH VLY LATER TODAY.
   
   IN THE WEST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY EJECTION OF CLOSED LOW
   NOW OFF THE SRN CA CST.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE NE INTO WRN CO
   BY 12Z SATURDAY.
   
   ...MID MS VLY/LWR OH VLY TO CNTRL APLCNS...'
   SURFACE HEATING AND PERSISTENT INFLUX OF MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S/ WILL DESTABILIZE
   IL/IND/OH TODAY IN WAKE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM OVERNIGHT
   STORMS.  ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW FORMING IN SE IA SHOULD
   MOVE/DEVELOP ESE WITH MEAN FLOW...AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER
   THIS MORNING AS IT REACHES/OVERSPREADS WARM SECTOR INVOF THE MS RVR.
   
   
   COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...50-60 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND LONG...MODESTLY CURVED
   HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED TO CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND
   AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE
   SMALL BANDS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS.  THESE BANDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
   COALESCE AND MOVE GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE OH RVR.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP W TOWARD FAR ERN MO. THIS
   TENDENCY MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/SMALL SCALE BOWS AND HEAVY RAIN.
   
   FARTHER E...ADDITIONAL BANDS/SHORT LINES OF SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED
   CELLS MAY FORM LATER IN THE DAY OVER OH/WV AND POSSIBLY WRN PA AS
   HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS DESTABILIZES REGION OF UPSLOPE
   FLOW BENEATH FAST DIFFLUENT UPPER JET. DEEP...LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.
   
   ...SWRN U.S...
   SPARSE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
   DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. 
   INVERTED-VEE ENVIRONMENT MAY...HOWEVER...SUPPORT A FEW GUSTY STORMS
   AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SRN GRT BASIN LATER
   TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
   FOR A MICRO BURST OR TWO MAY ALSO FORM ALONG DRY LINE OVER THE SRN
   HI PLNS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/14/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z