Apr 14, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Apr 14 13:04:15 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 141300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE...DIFFLUENT WNWLY JET PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CORRIDOR FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S STORMS IS NOW OVER SE MI AND SHOULD REACH THE NJ/DELMARVA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAILING S/SW INTO MN FROM STRONG IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN ONTARIO. FARTHER S...SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A MORE SRN DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PHASE WITH THE MN FEATURE AND SWEEP ESE ACROSS THE OH VLY LATER TODAY. IN THE WEST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY EJECTION OF CLOSED LOW NOW OFF THE SRN CA CST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE NE INTO WRN CO BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...MID MS VLY/LWR OH VLY TO CNTRL APLCNS...' SURFACE HEATING AND PERSISTENT INFLUX OF MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S/ WILL DESTABILIZE IL/IND/OH TODAY IN WAKE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS. ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW FORMING IN SE IA SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE WITH MEAN FLOW...AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS MORNING AS IT REACHES/OVERSPREADS WARM SECTOR INVOF THE MS RVR. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...50-60 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND LONG...MODESTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED TO CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL BANDS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. THESE BANDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY COALESCE AND MOVE GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE OH RVR. AT THE SAME TIME...BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP W TOWARD FAR ERN MO. THIS TENDENCY MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/SMALL SCALE BOWS AND HEAVY RAIN. FARTHER E...ADDITIONAL BANDS/SHORT LINES OF SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED CELLS MAY FORM LATER IN THE DAY OVER OH/WV AND POSSIBLY WRN PA AS HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS DESTABILIZES REGION OF UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH FAST DIFFLUENT UPPER JET. DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. ...SWRN U.S... SPARSE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. INVERTED-VEE ENVIRONMENT MAY...HOWEVER...SUPPORT A FEW GUSTY STORMS AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE SRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A MICRO BURST OR TWO MAY ALSO FORM ALONG DRY LINE OVER THE SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/14/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |