Apr 19, 2006 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Apr 19 13:00:23 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 191256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED APR 19 2006 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY TO SRN APLCNS... ...SYNOPSIS... OMEGA BLOCK WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS SRN CA UPR VORT CONTINUES E TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS LOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM S CNTRL TX E/NE ACROSS SRN AR INTO THE UPR TN VLY. A BIT FARTHER S AND E...WEAK BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO AL YESTERDAY SHOULD RETREAT E ACROSS GA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO WLY LLJ AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING E ACROSS TN. ...UPR TN VLY INTO GA/WRN CAROLINAS... RESIDUAL WLY LLJ WILL IMPINGE UPON RETREATING BACK-DOOR FRONT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE AREA AS HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY REBOUND WITH THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED OMEGA PATTERN. BUT COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...UPSLOPE COMPONENTS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AN/OR OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LIKELY TO RESULT IN RENEWED AND/OR STRENGTHENED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF SE TN/NRN AL/GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY. HEATING BENEATH RESIDUAL EML SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG W OF BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SRN TN/AL AND WRN GA...WITH VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE WRN CAROLINAS. COUPLED WITH DEEP NWLY SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES IN GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. FARTHER W...DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL BE ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO COMPOSITE STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN TN. COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER BHM 12Z RAOB/...POSSIBILITY WILL BE GREATER FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/SQUALL LINE. EMBEDDED BOWS MAY YIELD BOTH HIGH WIND AND HAIL. ALL OF THE STORMS IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. ...S CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND THE LWR MS VLY... STALLING COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM S CNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND THE LWR MS VLY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MIDDLE TN/NRN MS WSWWD INTO NERN TX AND THEN TO THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DRT. MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 0F 1500-2000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP ALONG/S OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN STRONG HEATING...MOIST PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 30-40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM S CNTRL TX INTO AR AND THE LWR MS VLY. THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TN VLY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT DURATION/ORGANIZATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM OVER THAT REGION IN WAKE OF ON-GOING MORNING STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF AFTERNOON CAPE /AROUND 2000 J PER KG/...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SPOTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SW...SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT INVOF FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SW TO THE TX BIG BEND. COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT MAY INITIATE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. GIVEN FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY N/NE INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NE TX TONIGHT...AND ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA EARLY THURSDAY...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES N OF STALLED FRONT. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD AHEAD OF CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL MAY FORM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX...IN AREA OF RAPID MOISTURE INFLUX/UPR DIVERGENCE AHEAD SAME UPR DISTURBANCE. ...WRN/CNTRL WI... A SMALL AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-SUPERCELL FUNNELS MAY EVOLVE INVOF OLD OCCLUSION MOVING NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL BE ADJACENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/VERTICAL VORTICITY AXIS NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION...AND MAY YIELD A BRIEF SPINUP OR TWO FOLLOWING MAX HEATING. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/19/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |