Apr 28, 2006 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Apr 28 16:46:19 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 281643 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN...SWRN AND W CNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. A DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX NEAR FORT STOCKTON NWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FARTHER S...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN TX FROM NEAR HOUSTON WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE AREA. THE WARM FRONT SEPARATES RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 FROM THE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS W TX IN PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND NWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS W TX THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK. A MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE NEWD THROUGH WRN TX ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE NM CUTOFF LOW AND WILL CONTRITE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN TX AND INTO W CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT DEVELOPS EWD OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY ON SRN END OF MCS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL TX AND MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND N OF E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL TX. ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM S CNTRL THROUGH N TX WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME. AS LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED BY VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS S CNTRL TX...AND WOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. FARTHER N ACROSS OK AND KS...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FARTHER S WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF NWD MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL. ...NRN PLAINS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 04/28/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |