SPC AC 300036
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006
   
   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS
   VLY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
   AND THE MID-SOUTH...
   
   ...LWR MS VLY...
   LINE OF TSTMS HAS MAINTAINED CHARACTER FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS LA
   THROUGH THE AFTN AND WAS MOVING INTO THE LWR MS VLY AT 01Z. 
   PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
   ACROSS EXTREME SRN MS AND SERN LA THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   EARLY EVE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT SEPARATING
   MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S SITUATED ACROSS
   NERN LA SEWD TO BETWEEN KMOB-KMSY.  THE WARM FRONT MAY TRANSLATE
   NEWD A LITTLE THIS EVENING...BUT STRONGER LLJ WILL BE SHIFTING NWD
   WITH TIME AND THE BETTER QUALITY INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT ADVECT TOO
   FAR INLAND/NEWD.  AS A RESULT...AS STORMS MOVE EWD...THEY WILL
   BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND LIKELY WEAKEN ACROSS AL AND SRN MS.
   
   UNTIL THEN...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VCNTY THE WARM FRONT COULD
   SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS
   WITHIN THE LINEAR MCS CROSS THE FRONT AND/OR BOW.
   
   ...OZARKS AND THE MID-SOUTH...
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WAS ABLE TO RECOVER/HEAT THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN LA
   NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AR IN WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS. 
   CONCURRENTLY...A SECONDARY JET STREAK/THERMAL TROUGH ROUNDING THE
   BASE OF THE LARGE PLAINS CYCLONE CONTRIBUTED TO RENEWED SFC
   CONVERGENCE/CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND TSTMS
   FORMED AS THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT STEEPENED.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DETRIMENTAL TO UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE/LONGEVITY GIVEN
   THE OVERALL WEAK BUOYANCY.  NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
   QUITE STRONG AND AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND NERN LA...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE SEVERE THREATS WILL PROBABLY
   DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE MID-MS VLY/MID-SOUTH...HOWEVER.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG/E OF THE MARINE PUSH/COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSING THE POLAR
   WLYS.  STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR THE LWR TREASURE VLY OF WCNTRL ID
   SWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN NV WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. 
   ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DIURNAL AND WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/30/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z