SPC AC 010043
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN AR INTO WRN KY...
   
   ...NERN OK TO SRN IL...
   
   EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT
   ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...ROTATING ESEWD TOWARD SRN MO/NRN AR. 
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE...INFLUENCED GREATLY BY AFTERNOON HEATING BENEATH COLD UPPER
   TROUGH.  00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF LIKELY SAMPLES THIS ENVIRONMENT
   FAIRLY WELL...WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANT
   SFC-BASED PARCELS.  RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE
   ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT...WHICH WILL ADVECT INTO
   NWRN AR AROUND 02Z.  UNTIL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   WEAKENS IT APPEARS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST.
    LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AROUND 03Z.
   
   ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ORGANIZED BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED ESEWD
   ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY. THIS CONVECTION IS
   BEGINNING TO INGEST INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS...MUCAPE AOB
   500J/KG...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
   ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...THUS SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS
   ACROSS WRN KY INTO SRN IND THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/01/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z