SPC AC 030054
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
   
   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN TO NERN KS...
   
   ...TX/OK...
   
   AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE HAS SINCE
   PROPAGATED EAST...EXTENDING FROM WRN OK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF
   SWRN TX.  SCATTERED SEVERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE NOW MERGING WITH
   COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW WHILE EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS BECOMING
   MORE UNIFIED...ESPECIALLY SRN HALF OF ACTIVITY FROM WEST OF ABI TO
   SW OF SJT.  NORTHERN PORTIONS REMAIN BROKEN BUT LARGER CLUSTERS WILL
   SOON MERGE AS MCS EVOLVES ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX.  00Z
   SOUNDINGS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS REGION ARE NOT TERRIBLY
   UNSTABLE...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF EARLIER
   CONVECTION.  REGARDLESS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE TO
   BE OBSERVED OVER WRN OK INTO SWRN TX.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   SEVERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
   INTENSITY AS CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...WELL EAST OF THE
   EXPECTED STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED OVER NWRN TX
   INTO SRN KS.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY/MID MO VALLEY...
   
   WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING ACROSS ND WITH ASSOCIATED SFC
   FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD ACROSS NEB INTO SWRN MN.  ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG NOSE OF MORE INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT OVER SERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
   INTO SRN MN SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS
   EVOLVING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB/WRN IA.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EVENING WITH UPWARD DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS FRONT DROPS
   INTO NERN KS/SWRN IA.  HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
   THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/03/2006
   
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